Lindisfarne Analysis (May 2024)

Two weeks ago when Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel with 300 ballistic missiles and drones, it created an immediate risk of an Iran-Israel war which would also involve Iran’s Lebanon based proxy Hezbollah. Any such war would have been catastrophic for Christians in the region – not least because it risked re-igniting Lebanon’s civil war in which an estimated 100,000+ people died in the 70s and 80s.

Israel and Iran avoid direct war

Both Iran and Israel appear to have pulled back from a direct hot war between them for the present. Israel’s 19 April small scale attack demonstrated it could take out Iranian nuclear sites if it wished. An article in the Israeli press described it as being somewhat akin to the biblical story of David's moral victory over Saul when he crept into Saul’s camp and cut off a piece off his cloak while he slept (1 Samuel 24). While a senior Iranian official told Reuters later that day that Iran did not plan an immediate response.

But Hezbollah threatens a ground invasion of Israel

However, in reality Iran has simply switched back to attacking Israel through various Shi’a militant groups it controls in the region. These include the Houthis in Yemen, who in the last week have increased attacks on both merchant ships and western military forces sent to protect them. But the most significant Iranian proxy is Hezbollah - the Lebanese Shi’a jihadist group Iran set up in the 1980s during the Lebanese civil war.

On 21 April, two days after Iran and Israel had pulled back from the risk of direct war, Sheikh Sadek Al-Naboulsi, a leading Hezbollah academic, said on Lebanese TV that Hezbollah was making preparations to cross into Galilee in Northern Israel. In the interview, which is chilling for the calm way he speaks about there being “something basic and fundamental to our culture about the need to liberate Jerusalem and annihilate Israel” (listen HERE with English subtitles) – he added that Hezbollah was just waiting for its leader Hassan Nasrallah to give the command…

Then on April 22-23 during the Passover holiday, Hezbollah launched a series of drone attacks on Israel. Whilst Hezbollah has been attacking Israel daily since the day after the 7 October Hamas’ attack on Israel, this attack broke new ground by penetrating far deeper into Israel than it has done before – reaching the Israeli towns of Acre and Haifa.

Lebanon on the brink

Why this matters is that even before Hamas’ attack on Israel, Lebanon was on the brink of renewed conflict. The country consists of three main groups Lebanese Christians, Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims as well as a smaller Druze minority. A 1943 power-sharing agreement maintains a delicate balance of power between them by requiring the President to be a Lebanese Christian, the Prime Minister and head of government a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shi’a Muslim. So delicate is this balance of power that there has not been an official census since 1932 – as any suggestion that the relative size of any group had significantly changed could literally provoke a war.

Although there were multiple factors behind the Lebanese civil war of 1975-89, its immediate catalyst was a reaction to the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) acting as a state within a state among the 100,000+ Palestinian refugees in southern Lebanon and using its position there to launch attacks on Israel. The latter prompted the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982.

Today, the situation is disturbingly similar. Hezbollah, which is a proscribed terrorist organisation in the USA, UK, Australia and a number of other countries, is by far the most powerful force in Lebanese politics and its armed wing is more powerful than the Lebanese defence forces. Since Hamas’ attack on 7^th October, it has fired an estimated 3,200 missiles at Israel.

However, even before this, sectarian tensions were high in Lebanon. In October 2021 there were serious sectarian clashes involving gunfire which left several people dead, including Hezbollah members. This raised fears among many Lebanese that a new civil war could erupt, particularly as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah publicly warned other political parties at the time that he had 100,000 fighters he could use if he needed to (see BBC report HERE).

Christians in Lebanon

Lebanon was once the Christian enclave in the Middle East. When the last official census was conducted in 1932 it has a small Christian majority. Although there had been a massacre of around 10,000 Maronite Christians in 1860, prior to the 1975-89 civil war it had been seen as something of an oasis for Christians in the midst of an otherwise hostile Middle East. No-one actually knows exactly how many Christians there are in Lebanon today, but Christians have been leaving Lebanon for some time. However, it is clear that it still has by far the highest percentage of Christians of any country in the Middle East. It has also been a safe haven  - and because it is a non-Islamic country – often the only safe haven, for Christians fleeing persecution elsewhere in the Middle East, including large numbers who fled Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

So, anything which led to Lebanon no longer being a safe place for Christians would not only lead to the collapse of yet another ancient Christian population who have lived in the Middle East since the first century of Christianity – it would also be a disaster for Christians from across the Middle East, for whom it is the only place of refuge they have.

Pray for peace and the restraint of evil in the Middle East

See also article by Lindisfarne Centre published by Premier Christianity 19 April What the Iran-Israel conflict means for Christians (HERE)