On 12 February Jihadists affiliated to Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP) attacked a bus in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, killed the driver and leaving handwritten notes warning the passengers that they must either:

1.      Convert to Islam.

2    Pay jizya – the symbol of submitting to dhimmitude, or

3    Be killed.

It was not the first such attack in Mozambique, a similar incident occurred in November 2022. Nor are these empty threats. The letters began by stating that they were from

“the government of the Islamic State of Mozambique” – and that this choice of conversion, dhimmitude or death applied to “all Christians in the world”:

"We declare war on all Christians in the world for three things, either to be a Muslim or paying jizyah [a poll tax which the Quran mandates non-Muslims to pay their Muslim rulers]. If you haven't paid jizyah it’s a war until [the end of the] earth. To Muslims we announce peace to all the world. Let’s work together to defend the religion of Allah together. If you refuse [to convert to Islam] then you will pay jizyah and if you refuse to pay jizyah you will be killed."

It is indicative of Islamic State’s current strategy for expansion – which specifically targets Christians.

Islamic State in Africa

Islamic State’s emergence in Mozambique illustrates the looming threat that Christians potentially face in sub-Saharan Africa.

It would be easy to think that the threat from Islamic State disappeared when Mosul was liberated in July 2017 – or at the very least in March 2019 when it was evicted from the last few villages it controlled in Syria, with its ideological leader and military commander Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killing himself to avoid capture in October that year.

In fact, far from Islamic State disappearing, it just re-invented itself, focusing principally on areas outside of its middle eastern heartlands – particularly on Africa.

There were already a number of major jihadist groups in Africa which had a long record of targeting Christians and churches – al-Shabab in Somalia, northern Kenya and Tanzania, Boko Haram in Nigeria and northern Cameroon; and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) - in countries such as Algeria, Mauritania and Mali. Many of these have sought to expand their activities in recent years by exploiting local grievances.

However, what has largely gone unnoticed is that as soon as Islamic State was evicted from the territory it controlled in Iraq and Syria – it immediately began ramping up attacks in Africa – and establishing a new province  - Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) – with two main branches: One in the Congo which resulted from the affiliation of the Allied Democratic Forces which had originally been founded to impose Islamic rule on Uganda; and the other in Mozambique which was originally a local group known as al-Shabaab – though not linked to the international jihadist group of that name. Both of these groups began attacks within a few month of IS being evicted from the last few villages it held in Syria.

Islamic State’s new strategy

Islamic State’s new strategy appears to be to encourage local jihadist groups to swear allegiance (bayah) to its “caliphate”. The local jihadists gain the status and kudos of belonging to a global jihadist group. Islamic State gives them quite a high degree of autonomy, but then sets them specific criteria in terms of the number and type of attacks they have to conduct in order to be recognised as an official province (waliyat) of Islamic State. IS then receives reports of these attacks and publishes them on its social media channels  - which creates the aura of Islamic State still being a globally leading jihadist organisation.

However, what is particularly significant is that the criteria Islamic State set – appear to involve attacks on Christians and churches around the world. For example, in April 2019 – a month after IS had been evicted from its last remnant of territory in Syria, it released a video of its leader al-Baghdadi praising the IS attack on Christians in Sri Lanka which targeted three churches and killed 269 people on Easter Sunday. This was no ordinary video – it was the first time al Baghdadi had appeared in public since he announced the creation of a Caliphate i.e. global Islamic state in 2014. In the same video he welcomed pledges of allegiance from jihadists in Mali and Burkina Faso – where Christians are now being attacked and referred for the first time publicly to “Islamic State’s Central African Province”.

This is a specific targeting of Christians. As a recent academic study of Islamic State in Africa observed in relation to ISCAP’s attacks in Mozambique:

“Collaborators, Christians and the Mozambican military were all legitimate targets for both al-Shabaab [i.e. ISCAP] itself and the Islamic State, much as the latter justified similar actions and atrocities by its affiliates across the world.”

Islamic State in Mozambique

The Mozambiquan branch is based in Cabo Delgado,  which borders Tanzania and is Mozambique’s only Muslim majority region, in a country which is majority Christian with a Muslim population of less than 20%.

In the year before it swore allegiance to Islamic State the local group had begun attacking Christian villages in Cabo Delgado province. However, Islamic State Central African Province has adopted a specific strategy of attacking Christian villages in order to extend its influence.

Islamic State Central African Province has over the last few years mounted a whole series of attacks on Christians in Congo, Mozambique and Tanzania. Christians in Congo have suffered the worst – with repeated attacks on Christian villages – which resemble those Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province have carried out on Christians in Nigeria, including beheadings, burning villages and taking Christians captive.

However, it is Mozambique where they may present the greatest risk – as they have managed to seize control of major urban areas in Cabo Delgado province. They began attacking Christians on 2 August 2020 burning Christian homes in the village of Mecamula, and burning a second Christian village nine days later. Both were part of a major ISCAP-Mozambique offensive, which ten days later saw them capture the strategically important port town of  Mocimboa da Praia, which they then held for a year. Similarly, in March 2021 they attacked and for a few weeks held the town of Palma – a centre of Mozambique’s liquified natural gas industry, killing local Christians while they were there.

It is also likely that ISCAP-Mozambique have crossed the border into Tanzania – and were responsible for a number of attacks on Christian villages just over the border.

Could Mozambique become the next Syria or Iraq?

In other words, what we are seeing – with the demands for Christians to either convert, submit to dhimmitude as symbolised by the payment of jizya or be killed – is not an idle threat. ISCAP have demonstrated their ability to seize and control territory, just as they did in Syria and Iraq. However, the difference now is that this is happening in two Christian majority countries – Congo and Mozambique – and appears to be spreading to a third – Tanzania.

Islamic State’s strategy is similar to specific targeting and Christian villages and slaughter of Christians we have seen in Nigeria, except that it is now working through locally franchised jihadist organisations. It is clear that Africa – including sub-Saharan Africa is now a major focus of Islamic State. Western governments need to wake up to the reality of what is happening.

Pray for Christians in Mozambique, particularly those in Cabo Delgado Province in the North.